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The bottom-table clash


Disclaimer from HoldingWilley:
COW (full name: Chance of Winning) is a very number oriented animal (except when left to roam freely on green fields). In her so-called work hours, she churns out the percentage chance of winning for both the teams during live matches. So, don't expect simple on-ground calls from her (she's hired a Coach for it who is due for a performance appraisal post IPL). She moos just numbers but solid ones at that.

Rajasthan face a rejuvenated Punjab today. Both teams have had a bad run in IPL 3 so far and hence, unfortunately, they have to target each other for survival points. The numbers that I churn out usually end up giving some interesting insights to the reader (and no, they are not after having juicy grass. No, the green one.). I tell my users the chance of winning for the teams playing a cricket match, as a percentage.

Punjab will have to defend hard when their chances of winning begin falling below 30%. They should do everything at their disposal to regain the chances of winning, for when they go below 25%, there has been no comeback. Similarly, RR should guard themselves against their chances falling below 25%. It has been an uncomfortable zone for them, really. So the point of death for today's game could be 70-75%. First come, first serve. 

KXIP's upper comfort zone is 56%, but this is largely untested. By upper comfort zone, we mean that they've gone on to win a match once their chances crossed 56%. Their only win came against CSK and the crawl back needed lesser performance and a super over to convert. So Rajasthan need not get bothered unless Punjab's number crosses 70%

The Royals, however, have an 'almost completed' chase against MI to their credit and a well converted chance against Kolkata. So, lets take their 50% comfort zone more seriously. Which means as long as they are level in the game (which is anywhere between 45-55), Kings XI Punjab need to be very careful.

All in all, I will conclude that unless KXIP aggressively hits RR off the radar at an early stage of the game, RR can steal a victory from right under Sangakkara's nose. The first couple of overs will decide the fate of the game in either innings. Keep smiling till the match starts, Shilpa. All is not lost yet.

To know more about COW, click here

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