COW Review: SA vs Ind

Contributed by Jake Perry

For those coming in new

COW i.e. Chance of Winning is a tool that calculates live during a match, the percentage chance that each team has of winning the match. This it does on an over-by-over basis i.e. based on the score at the end of each over. While it adds a new facet to following a match live, it is also good for post-match analysis.

Following the chance of winning that each team had at the end of each over, and how it changed over the course of the match provides many insights on how the game flowed, and that is what we are looking to capture here in this analysis of the recently concuded India vs SA series.

1st ODI: Jaipur

Brief Scores:
Ind 298/9 (Sehwag 46, Karthik 44, Raina 58, Kallis 29/3) beat SA 297 all out (Kallis 89, Parnell 49, Jadeja 29/2)

Cow chart for the match

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This was a reasonably even contest up until the 19th over of the second innings, when Ravinder Jadeja seized the initiative following a maiden-wicket, after which India never really looked back. Jadeja, as it turns out, bowled two spells in which he improved India's chance of winning by 8% - a significant performance given that both these spells came in the powerplay. That India's COW still didn't go beyond 60% in this period reflects how off-the-mark the bowlers from the other end were.

Speaking of other bowlers being off-the-mark, after having SA reeling at nearly 15% in the 44th over, the Indian bowling let them back into the game, leaving South Africa with a 32% chance to win going into the final over, creating a game out of nothing. Credit, of course, must also go to the batting pair of Warne Parnell and Dale Steyn who very nearly staged the most dramatic comeback in COW's short ODI history.

2nd ODI: Gwalior

Brief Scores:
Ind 401/3 (Tendulkar 200*, Dhoni 68*, Karthik 78) beat SA 248 all out (de Villiers 114*, Sreesanth 49/3, Pathan 37/2)

Cow Chart for the match
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The COW chart for this match is a good demonstration of the impact of Sachin's double-ton. Waging an evenly fought tussle for control of the match till the 32nd over, Sachin finally wrested free the initiative, and along with Dhoni, set India on a very comfortable platform by the end of the first innings - with a COW of over 75%. South Africa had two little footholds in the match, which came when they got Sehwag and Karthik, but continuing firepower from Yousuf Pathan and Dhoni meant the Africans were never really on top of the game.

However, they were not entirely out of it, as a mini-resurgence in the first eight overs of the chase showed. Quick wickets, however, killed whatever sniff of a chance they had, and by the end of the 14th over, SA were reduced to a 20% COW as five batsmen were back in the dressing room, with De Villiers' century only slowing down the fall from 20% to 0%.

3rd ODI: Ahmedabad

Brief Scores:
SA 365/2 (Kallis 104*, de Villiers 102*) beat Ind 275 all out (Kohli 57, Steyn 37/3)

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Although of only academic relevance, interestingly enough, the third match followed a similar pattern as the first two, with the game really being decided around the middle of the match i.e. between over nos.35 to 40 of the first innings and over nos.15 to 20 of the second innings chase.

De Villiers and Kallis hit their stride very early on in their innings, but the decisive phase of the match came in the last 10 overs, with South Africa increasing their chances of winning by a whopping 11%, a point from which there were no comebacks from the Indians.

Styen finished off whatever little fight that was left in the Indian innings, with a 13% hit in the 28th over where he picked up Dhoni and Kohli.

(Click here to know more about COW)

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COW Review: SA vs Ind

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