So, the
Super Eight starts off with one pre-tournament title contender – India –and one
of the most mercurial and unpredictable teams – Pakistan – not making the cut.
That, however, does not make the Super Eights any less predictable.
As of
now, the Super Eight table stands so
Super
Eight
|
Played
|
Won
|
Tied
|
Lost
|
Points
|
|
|
Australia
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
New
Zealand
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
Sri
Lanka
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
West Indies
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
England
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
South
Africa
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Ireland
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
0
|
|
Bangladesh
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
0
|
|
Such is
the format of the tournament and the subsequent turn of events (and, of course,
the ‘glorious uncertainties of the game’) that two of the four teams who start off
with 2 extra points are not even favourites to qualify for the semis, let alone
be assured of a spot.
Two (near) certain qualifiers
Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and West Indies go in with 2 extra points.
However, Australia and New Zealand have a distinct advantage over their two
counterparts on account of the fact they get a game against two easier teams (
recent events have led me to temporarily abandon the term ‘minnows’), and are
almost assured of 4 further points. This pretty much guarantees Australia and New Zealand a semi-final spot.
If each
of the top six teams wins their games against Bangladesh and Ireland i.e. if Bangladesh and Ireland do not cause any upsets, the
points table will look like this.
Super
Eight |
Played |
Won |
Tied |
Lost |
|
|
|
Australia
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
|
New
Zealand
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
|
South
Africa
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
|
Sri
Lanka
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
|
England
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
|
West Indies
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
|
Ireland
|
6
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
0
|
|
Bangladesh
|
6
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
2
|
|
(assuming
Bangladesh beat Ireland)
The rest who are left
We are
now left with Sri Lanka, West Indies, South Africa and England (apart from Bangladesh and Ireland). Of the lot, perhaps it is safe
to assume that South Africa have a better chance of going
through because of two reasons
A) Recent
incredible run of form shows that they are clearly favourites to defeat the
other three teams in the fray, and therefore get ahead.
B) They
have two games against weaker teams, making it four easy points as against two
for Lanka and West
Indies.
The three-way tie
This
leaves us with Sri Lanka, West Indies and England. While England have the extra game against a
weaker opposition, this is evened out by the fact that Lanka and West Indies start off with the extra 2
points.
This
makes the Sri Lanka – England, England – West Indies, Sri Lanka – West Indies games extremely important to determine
who is likely to be the fourth semi-finalist. Current form may suggest Lanka,
but we wouldn’t advise you to bet too much money on that.
England and West Indies are unpredictable, but England have been up and down, and West Indies have the home advantage.
It is
likely that the Sri Lanka – West Indies tie will decide who takes the
fourth place in the semis.
The Bangladesh – Ireland impact
It is
almost impossible for either of these two teams to go through, because it will
mean having to win atleast four out of their eight games, which , you will
admit, is imposible, as romantic as it may seem. It may be reasonable for us to
expect them to get 2 to at the most 6 points.
But they
will, nevertheless, have an impact in the Super Eight. If they can’t go in,
they will determine who will go down with them. Any upsets created by these
teams can upset the overall scheme of things, and give any of the other teams
an opening.
If
Bangladesh or Ireland defeat any of Australia, New Zealand or South Africa, it will
leave the doors open for any of the three remaining three teams to make an
early and easy entry into the Super Eight.
If Bangladesh or Ireland defeat Sri Lanka, West Indies or England, it will give the other two teams
in the three-way tie a useful advantage over their opponent.
Semis and the Finals
If things
go as they should, and if Australia and South Africa do not bungle up, it is unlikely
that they will meet in the semis, since the semis are between teams placed 1st
and 4th and teams placed 2nd and 3rd. Neither South Africa nor Australia are likely to finish fourth.
So, if Australia and South Africa do not play each other in the
semis, it sets up the prospect of an Australia – South Africa final. Of course, it may not
happen, quite a few things need to go to plan for that, either of the two teams
may even lose in the semis, but there is a chance…..just a chance, but a chance
nonetheless. If an Australia – South Africa final does happen……..ahhhhh.