Ruthless bashing, sudden collapses, nerve-breaking
finishes. You would think you have seen everything. However, with the Cup now down
to eight Teams, this tournament promises even more high octane drama to come. Everybody
is now in for a kill. Each victory means one step forward, and more
importantly, one step ahead of the rival, in the tussle for the precious
semi-final spot.
This match will be important for both the teams, although
in slightly varying degrees. South Africa, having lost to the mighty Australians,
has come into the Super Eight with a slight disadvantage. However, a win here will
negate the disadvantage. More so because it is the pack of four teams i.e. the Africans,
Lankans, Windies and Englishmen who have to bend their backs a bit more than
the Australians and Kiwis. A loss here could put them in an uncomfortable
situation where the last two-three matches might turn out to be knockouts for
them.
On the other hand, the Lankans come in to this stage with
a minor advantage. With 5 of their 6 matches being against major teams, the Lankans
will want to start well. After all, a good start is half the work done. Their
win will affect England and the Windies more than any
other team. However, a loss here would mean they would have thrown away the
advantage they had.
With the background set, let’s see what stats have to say
about the possible results.
Why Proteas rank better than Lankans:
As stats suggests, the South African bowling stands to
give away 226 runs whereas their batting is capable of putting on board 234 runs. The
fact that they stand to score a little more than they stand to concede is the
reason they have a high win percentage. However, the difference isn’t much, and
an error margin would neutralize things.
Lankans, like all sub continental teams (including, these
days, Bangladesh) are labeled as a surprise pack. But
are they really? Stats say Lankans give away 231 runs when they bowl and amass
223 when they bat.Although these figures do not exactly flatter Sri Lanka, on a given day, anything is possible and even more so in
cricket. Again, throw in a slight error margin and this match becomes a
close tie. Also, going by the current form of both the teams, looks like it’s
time to grab a place on the sofa and settle there for about a 100 overs.
The SWOT analysis:
To try and settle this deadlock, let us try and take into
consideration each team’s minor weaknesses.
The Lankan bowling battery relies primarily on the performance
of Murali. This is clear from the fact that Murali’s bowling average is 5.5
points better than the team’s overall bowling average. Also relevant is the
fact that Murali is the only bowler whose average rises substantially above the
team’s average. As compared to this, the Proteas have two bowlers– Pollock and
Ntini - with averages 4 points more than that of the team. Tame Murali, and Sri
Lankan bowling will suddenly seem a lot weaker than it looks now.
It has been observed that Lanka’s best bowling
performances come when the opening bowlers grab a couple of quick wickets and
set up an ideal platform for Murali to weave his spin magic. The South
Africans may be interested in avoiding such a situation.
Contrary to popular image, the South Africans seem to
secure more of their runs in boundaries rather than through singles and twos.
Thus, choking them may help the Lankans. But with batting averages of four of
their top-order batsmen being higher than the team’s batting average by more
than 10 points (and with Kallis on a whopping 20 points), the African batting
holds a slight edge over the Lankans.
This World Cup has seen enough drama for us to be wise enough
to not to judge winners on paper. Especially so when the match is so evenly
poised. The results of this match is likely to decide a lot of
strategies for many teams.