The Super
Eight had proceeded without too many surprises in terms of results, although we
have already had two edge-of-the-seat thrillers. There was general talk about
the four teams entering the semis being obvious and completely predictable.
Everything seemed scripted and in order. And then South Africa lost to Bangladesh and everything went to hell all
the once.
Australia and New Zealand have nothing to upset the odds
that in favour of their spot in the semis. But then comes the real struggle
with the four way tie between Lanka, South Africa and the West Indies. The last night I had written
that the former two were clear favourties. Today morning, I am forced to change
that sentence.
In the
meantime, all is not lost yet for the Poms and the hosts, and let us take a
look at what the power structure looks like midway through the Super Eight
stage.
This is
what the table looks like now.
Lanka Vs Windies Vs England
Lanka
have won their games against the Windies and England, which leaves them two steps
ahead. And they have a game against Ireland in hand, which makes it
potentially three steps ahead. To counter that, what West Indies will need to do is beat Bangladesh, South Africa and England, and hope that Lanka lose all
against Australia and New Zealand.
This will leave them both tied at 8 points. So
to go ahead of Lanka, what the Windies will need is for either Lanka to lose to
Ireland, or for some other team apart
from England to be tied with them at 8 points
so that the head to head is out of the picture.
All in
all, a tough ask.
Lets move
on now to England.
Of all
the teams in the Super Eight, the Englishmen have looked the least likely to
win the World Cup, not because of lack of talent, but more because of an
indifferent, demotivated demeanour to the side. But possibly, Bopara and Nixon's
spirited comeback may just act as that little tequilla shot to get them shaken
and , well, stirred.
To make
up for their loss against, Lanka, England will have to first win against a team
Lanka has lost to - South Africa - which still leaves them at 4 points. To then
draw level with the West Indies and Lanka (if the above conditions are satisfied), they
will also have to win against Bangladesh (something you certainly can't
take for granted after last night) and Australia (something you never want to have
to do in a crunch situation) to get to the magic lifeline figure of 8 points.
Effectively,
England still have a chance if they lose
tonight to Australia, if they can beat Bangla, SA and
the Windies.
What all
this means is
A) For England and West Indies to have any chance, Sri Lanka has to lose all it's games,
except the one with Ireland. And with a rather obvious
corollary - West
Indies
have to win all their games.
B) If England lose to Australia or Bangladesh, the England -West Indies becomes almost a knock out for
both teams. If England do win both their games, and if the Windies beat
England, and if the above condition is satisfied, we will have a three way tie
between Lanka, West Indies and England at 8 points each.
C) The
Lanka - Ireland game becomes important for the
other two teams in the fray, since a shock loss to Lanka there will act as a
huge bonus for both these teams, and
clear the space for them to charge through.
D)
Somewhat ironically, West Indies will be hoping that England win tonight, so they won't come
in with desperation to win.
Very
little of all the above complications would have arosen had England managed to sneak a couple of that
last ball. None of the above complications would have happened if Malinga had
taken five in five that mad evening. The power of 2 runs and of one run, ladies
and gentlemen.
The South
African story
This
World Cup, analysts will be spending a great deal of time with their hands on
their heads as they try and sort out one four way battle after another. What
seemed like a fairly predictable semi-final quartet - Lanka, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand - has suddenly been thrown into a
tizzy on account of Bangaldesh's shock win last night.
Now, if South Africa lose even one of their remaining
three games , they will fall into the 8 point quicksand, where you don't know
who you are going to be tied against, or how many you are going to be tied
against. An unpleasant, uncertain situation that they will be desperate to
avoid. To do which they will have to win all their three games to safely move
into a 10 point zone, and a certain quarter final spot.
The
South-Africa - West Indies game becomes important now for both. If Windies win, South Africa is almost certain to be stuck at
8 points or lower, and will have to hope that Windies lose their other games. England will be hoping that the Windies
lose.
The
South-Africa-England game leaves both teams with a chance to qualify even if
they lose, but then a defeat in this game will leave too much in the hands of
the other teams and the N.R.R.
Worse,
things will become decisive if the Windies lose their other games, and these
two teams end up in a two way tie, which means on a head-to-head, this game
will decide their fortunes.
All in
all, South Africa would much rather face defeat
against New Zealand rather than against England or the Windies.
An
extraordinarily twisted and complicated situation - and therefore extremely
interesting. I don't even want to contemplate what will happen if Bangladesh beat Ireland, England and the West Indies.