The Super Eight begins with what is on paper, a potential cracker. The Aussies with an impregnable batting line up will face up to a West Indian squad which is , although nowhere close to the glory of the 70’s and the 0’s, is certainly well past the indignities of the late 90’s.

 Despite that, this game will always be looked upon as one that the Aussies ought to win, but with the Windies having an outside chance. Let’s if the stats match up to this billing.

 A)    Projected scores

 Without taking in consideration the extras conceded, the West Indies are projected to score 231 for 7 in their 50 overs, so with an error margin, let’s say anything between 230 to 245 including extras. Whereas, the Aussies are expected to notch up 251 in their quota of overs. Considerably higher than the Windies, too high for even the error margin to catch up.

 On the other, the West Indian bowlers generally conceded, on an average, 230 to 240 runs in their 50 overs, which is pretty much the same for the Australian bowling line up.

 So, it is clear that to make up for the relatively weaker batting, the West Indian bowlers will have to bowl better than their potential, and the West Indian will have to take advantage of the Aussie bowling weakness to try and increase the gap between the runs they are slated to score, and the runs they are slated to concede.

  B)    Key Batsmen

  As dangerous as Lara is, it will help Ponting if he reserves his best bowlers for Sarwan, whose average is 20 points more than the overall team average.

At the same time, the trinity of Lara, Chanderpaul and Gayle also deviate by more than 15 points from the overall team average, which means they will also have to be kept in check.

 Surprisingly enough, none of the Australian batsmen except Hussey (we will come to him in a bit) deviate from the team batting average by more than 14 points, while five batsmen deviate by 10 points or more.

This seems to indicate that the Aussie batsmen hunt in packs rather than be dependent on individual efforts.  

This also shows that Australia’s team batting average is higher than that of the West Indies.

Can’t be good news for the Windies

 Coming to Hussey – the southpaw scores a phenomenal 37.86 runs more than the team’s average. There is a case for moving Hussey up the order because invariably, the team’s best batsmen hardly gets enough overs to reach his average score of 60+.

C)    Key Bowlers

 Not surprisingly, Bracken and McGrath have bowling averages more than 6 points lower than the team’s overall bowling average, indicating that the Windies may want to see them off without too many risks, and reserve their onslaught for the remaining bowlers.

 Another chink in the West Indian armour is revealed when we realize that Jerome Taylor alone contributes a large chunk to West Indies’ bowling average (deviating by 7.42 points). Again, an indication that they are dependent on one bowler, rather than an overall team effort. See Taylor off and you have a potential feast at hand.

D)    Runs in boundaries

 West Indies score a much higher percentage of their runs in boundaries (103 runs out of a total of 231 runs in an innings) as against Australia (102 runs out of a total of 251), indicating that

a)     Aussies are evenly balanced between singles and boundaries, and they run well between wickets

b)     Choke the boundaries, and you choke the West Indies batting, which may not be true for the Aussies.

All in all, the dice is loaded well in favour of the Aussies. To win, West Indies will need to perform above their potential in at least one of the departments.