Things
are now fairly clear. The problem with losing three games - well, one of the
problems with losing three games is that you are left at the mercy of other
teams. So, today's game holds great importance for the Windies. For, their consistently
dismal batting performance has put them at the mercy of the other teams'
performances, and a Lankan victory today will not do any good for their world
cup hopes. Not the kind of feeling a home crowd would like to entertain.
Lanka has put up a fairly convincing performance in this tournament.Typically, an Asian
countries are supposed to be weak fighters, relying more on
individual skill and natural talent than on character and mental strength. But the
Lankans seem to have come to the West Indian shores with a lot more
determination, focus and discipline. Their victory against the Windies and a strong
performance against the Proteas has put immense pressure on England and the Windies. A Lankan
victory will mean these teams will have to beat Australia, Africans and the Kiwis between them. An
uphill task, given their current form.
But an England
victory turns the equation in their favour. After this victory even if England
lose to the mighty Australians and Africans (to whom Lankans and Windies have
already lost), they still hold an advantage over their two rivals as they get
to play both the minnows in the Super Eight, of which one they have already
defeated. More importantly, they will bring hope to the Windies hope.
Let us
see what the 'Squadstats' have to say about the chances of these teams in
today's game.
I) Bowling Potency
England
looks a bit weak in the bowling
department. Flintoff and Anderson are the only bowlers having an
average above
the teams bowling average, both by 7+ pts. For England, the positive
side of this story is
that both of them have performed well so far in the World Cup. On the
other end, with 4 bowlers performing above the team's average,the
Lankan bowling line-up is much stronger on paper. Of the four, Maharoof is
yet to find his form so far in
the World Cup. However with Jayasuriya chipping in, the weakness seems
to have negated.
II) Batting advantage
With their bowling being weaker than that of the Lankans,the English
batsmen will have to rise to the occasion and perform. The good news is they seem to be on track.
With 5 batsmen
averaging 10 points more than the team average, with Pietersen on a
phenomenal 33 points above the team average, the
sucess for the team lies in their batting. He remains the key batsmen
for
Lankans to target. A dismal batting performance and England may well be
written off for
the rest of the match. Possibly, the rest of the tournament.
For Sri Lanka, Dilshan seems to hold the middle
order very well, having been involved in partnerships of 83, 97 and 17,35* against India,
SA and Windies respectively.
III) Projected scores
Not much
to choose between the two teams as both score around 230 and concede around 240. The Lankans
hold a slight advantage, but one that gets negligible when you throw in an error margin.
IV) Consistency
However, the Lankans show lot more consistency with big inninngs per 5 matches as compared to England's
one per 7 games. This is clearly visible from their current performances.
On the whole, the Lankans
thus look strong and well poised for a victory. But in a game like cricket, miracles do happen. Like England
winning the Ashes in 2005.