As
things have turned out, life in the semis of both the teams involved in the
third Super Eight encounter will depend, to a certain extent, on this
game. In a match that will determine the
positions and destinies of the six other teams in the fray (ok, five, the
Aussies are possibly safe), enthusiasm and determination of the players will probably
count for more than their playing skills and ability.
New Zealand play their first match
of the Super Eight, and possibly face their first real challenge. As mentioned,
they come in with a two point advantage, further backed up with two games
against easier opponents. But, having said that, they still have a tough job
ahead. It is perhaps important to mention that this is, in fact, the same team
which collapsed against Bangladesh in the warm-up match.
Also, they haven’t really been tested so far - the win against England can hardly be called a
test, because as we all know England chooses only extreme
ends, outright wins or spineless defeats. So this match should clear a cloud of
uncertainty floating over the Kiwis and give a clear indication of how good
they really are.
West Indies come into this match with a
relatively low morale. Having lost to Australia in the second round
opener, they have already given away the early chance to put pressure on Lanka
and England. However, Lara and co.
will come in with the local crowd backing them (or maybe not, going by the
semi-empty stands during their game against the Aussies and Lara’s complaints
thereafter).
Mind
games apart, statistics too, point at some interesting results. Let us try and understand
them.
Projected scores
The
Stats start off by putting us in a bit of a deadlock. Surprisingly, both the
teams stand to concede 238 runs in 50 overs and put 230 on board when they bat
(without taking into consideration the extras involved). That leaves us with
very little to choose from, error margin or not. Let’s analyse their strengths
and weakness in closer detail to try and find a probable winner.
Weaknesses
The
West
Indies are more or less dependent on big scores to get them hefty totals.
Not surprisingly, they lose several games because on an average, every player in their batting order can provide
them with a 50+ innings only once every 15 matches . Having said that, we
may have to point out the fact that biggies from Sarwan and Gayle are long overdue.
Sure, the Kiwis would be hoping that the law of averages can wait one more
match. But these three along with Chanderpaul score at a whopping 15 points
above the team’s batting average.
Kiwis,
we maintain, are more about uniform group efforts than individual heroics. But
without a doubt, they too remain vulnerable to collapses, as their batsmen provide a biggie only once every
10 matches. However, with Vincent out of the team, the Kiwis face an uphill
challenge. Time for the captain to lead from front, perhaps.
But the batsman to worry about for
the Windies is Taylor. Scoring at 19 points above the team’s batting average, Taylor along with Fleming
will hold the strings of the Kiwi innings. Styris maintains his robin-hood
image this tournament too, conducting unexpected raids and guerrilla invasions
on the opposition.
The
Windies have a young but dynamic bowling battery with Taylor, Bravo and Gayle each
being well above the team’s bowling average. At the other end, the Kiwis rely
mainly on Bond and Oram as well as Vettori and Styris for wickets.
The
best way to counter a stubborn, unified pack is by coming up with the exact
opposite – a virtuoso, powerful individual effort that cuts through the ranks
of the pack. The Windies will either need a couple of fantastic individual
efforts, or will need to hold tight together to give to give Kiwis a scare. Having
said that, though, black magic is what seems to be on the menu.