and Jatin Thakkar
Cartoon by Rajnikanth S.
Arguing that the CLT20 was a crackerjack tournament is like claiming Lasith Malinga would make a great James Bond. But don’t take the ramblings of the odd grumpy IPL fan too seriously; this was a decent tournament that offered some very good cricket.
Studying the tournament by observing how the teams’ chances of winning (COW) the game have fluctuated during the matches tells some interesting stories. (For the uninitiated, Chance of Winning i.e. COW is a tool developed by HoldingWilley.com that calculates live, during the match, what is the percentage chance that each team has of winning the game from that point onwards. Watch the site for more live COW coverage and insights in the forthcoming weeks.)
So, let the stories begin!
The Top Match-Winners 
Kieron Pollard had the most dramatic single moment of impact when he scored 27 runs in one over while chasing against NSW. The jump in T&T’s chances of winning – 19% - is matched only by the jump in his chances of landing a fat IPL contract sometime soon.
But in terms of sustained impact, Brett Lee stole the show in the match that mattered – the final. Starting with the bat and ending with the ball (he came in in the 11th over of NSW’s innings and was continuously influencing proceedings till the 3rd over of T&T’s chase) he presided over a stunning recovery process for NSW, taking them from a 30% chance of winning to 55%, an effort unmatched by anyone else in the tournament.
Lee and his bowling unit have been consistent match-winners throughout the tournament. Except in a lone instance, New South Wales' have never had less than 55% chances of winning in the first 10 overs of their bowling. Their bowlers have, in fact, taken NSW past 65% COW within the first 10 overs of the innings itself on two separate occasions.
JP Duminy has been another standout player, taking his team past the coveted 60% chance of winning mark (more on that below) more often than any other batsman in the tournament.
Match Patterns
Typically, teams who cross the 60% chance of winning mark first in the final 10 overs of the match generally go on to win the contest. Only two teams have managed to lose the game despite having more than a 60% COW going into the last five overs – Deccan Chargers, who choked against T&T, and NSW, who were blameless on account of being hit by the Pollard storm mentioned above.
At the other end of the spectrum, 30% seems to be the beginning of the quicksand. If, with about 6 or 7 overs to go in the match, you find that your team has 30% chances of winning or lower, it may be a sign that the lucky underwear you wore and the auspicious chair in the living room you took have betrayed you, and how!
Patterns Of The Winners
NSW and T&T are the only two teams who have been consistently dominant in the tournament. Studying how they go about their business is very interesting.
T&T usually spend a considerable amount of time sparring and trading punches, before suddenly breaking the rhythm when least expected and executing a quick K.O. They have usually hovered in the 40 to 55% zone for the first 20-25 overs the match, before suddenly picking it up, and usually doing so through their batting.
NSW, on the other hand, usually dominate right from the word go, and almost inevitably, do so through their bowling. As explained earlier in the piece, their bowling usually has them with their boots on the opposition’s neck right from very early on in the game. Defection from these patterns has happened, but very rarely.
It is interesting how these patterns had actually set up a very interesting subplot in the final. T&T have emerged as the most resilient team of the tournament so far, being the only team to have fought back despite having a less than 30% chance of winning for sustained periods. Not once, but twice. Resilience was the one area NSW hadn’t been tested in earlier in the tournament, having never been put to sword, and whether they would break there or not would decide who took the CLT20 trophy. T&T pushed them to the brink, reducing their COW to 30% in the 10th over, but they held on and fought back, and duly picked up the championship.
The CLT20 has been plagued with several one-sided matches. There have been six separate occasions where one team has touched a 0% chance of winning well before the full 40 overs in the match have been bowled.
The team most guilty of putting up drab, one-sided matches has been Somerset. On one occasion they conspired to reach the 0% COW in the 8th over of the defense of their total, i.e. with a full 12 overs to go for the match to end. You know it isn’t a thrilling team to follow when the most newsworthy part of their campaign is the monster hiding in Trescothick’s kitbag.